26 Jul · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1482
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adamus
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1440
FormLLLWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przewlocki🌟Przewlocki goes over total as underdog 72% (46)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H23-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-20)