26 Jul · 18:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1497
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krupa
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1445
FormWWWLL
56%
44%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)