26 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1412
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1472
FormWWLWW
43%
57%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H18-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-13)