26 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1389
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1412
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.