26 Jul · 21:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1476
FormWWWLW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Lilien
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1321
FormLLLWL
67%
33%
🌟Sulkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~75 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+155
H2H19-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+155)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-15)