26 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1476
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1462
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Urban goes over total as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H53-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.