26 Jul · 21:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1369
FormLLWLL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1462
FormWWWWW
40%
60%
🔥 Underdog lean · Nowak🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
22%
3-1
16%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+93
H2H35-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+93)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-17)