26 Jul · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1482
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1497
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as favourite 64% (28)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H87-77
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.