26 Jul · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1479
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1482
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H85-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.