26 Jul · 23:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1492
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupa
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1456
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 40% · 2.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.