26 Jul · 23:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1506
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Gumulinski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1460
FormWLWWW
55%
45%
🌟Urban goes over total as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H70-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (70-28)