27 Jul · 01:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1410
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1489
FormWLWWW
41%
59%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H11-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-7)