27 Jul · 02:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1492
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1531
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
🌟Oracz covers set handicap as favourite 68% (38)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.