27 Jul · 02:45 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1479
FormWWLLW
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Marud
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1352
FormLLLLL
64%
36%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~78 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+127
H2H47-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+127)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-26)