27 Jul · 03:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1503
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Krupa
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1502
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H10-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.