27 Jul · 03:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1345
FormLLLLL
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1461
FormLWLWL
37%
63%
🔥 Underdog lean · Nowak🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~79 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H36-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-17)