27 Jul · 03:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1487
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Schaniel
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1461
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban goes over total as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H52-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.