27 Jul · 05:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1481
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1489
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H69-85
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.