27 Jul · 07:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1489
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1553
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as favourite 64% (28)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H88-77
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (88-77)