27 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1506
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1486
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.