27 Jul · 07:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1526
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Machelski
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1502
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Michalik covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H21-55
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.