27 Jul · 11:50 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1499
FormLLWWL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Wojtaszczyk
WW
🇵🇱Wojciech Wojtaszczyk
ELO 1708
FormLWWWW
28%
72%
Fair odds · Wojtaszczyk
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+209
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+209)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)