27 Jul · 11:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1635
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Jarocki
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1561
FormLLWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H53-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-48)