27 Jul · 13:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1580
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jarocki
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1626
FormLWWWW
45%
55%
🌟Spychala goes over total as underdog 67% (84)
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H33-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-29)