27 Jul · 14:40 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1299
FormLLLLL
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1497
FormWWWWW
29%
71%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 89% (18)
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 73% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 56%Total ~75 pts
0-3
30%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+198
H2H14-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+198)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-10)