27 Jul · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1637
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jarocki
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1642
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H29-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.