27 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1612
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Guzik
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1579
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Guzik stays under total as favourite 68% (22)
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.