27 Jul · 16:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1485
FormLWWWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Lilien
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1325
FormWLWWL
67%
33%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~76 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+160
H2H6-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+160)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-0)