27 Jul · 20:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1424
FormLWLWW
68%Win chancemodel fair 1.47Kowalczyk
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1259
FormLLLLW
68%
32%
🔥 Underdog lean · Eliasz🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 68% · 1.47vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~80 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+165
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+165)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)