27 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1341
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1387
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H22-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)