27 Jul · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1486
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gesiarz
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1496
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.