27 Jul · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1405
FormWWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sikon
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1362
FormWWLLL
55%
45%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H3-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)