27 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1482
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1487
FormLLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H35-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.