27 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1331
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1341
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.