27 Jul · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1331
FormWLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1394
FormWWWLW
43%
57%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H2-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)