27 Jul · 22:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1405
FormWWLWW
78%Win chancemodel fair 1.28Durda
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1693
FormWWWWL
22%
78%
Fair odds · Durda
Model 78% · 1.28vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 62%Total ~75 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
28%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+288
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+288)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)