27 Jul · 23:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1364
FormLWWWL
82%Win chancemodel fair 1.22Durda
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1701
FormWWWWW
18%
82%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Durda
Model 82% · 1.22vsMarket 77% · 1.30· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 69%Total ~75 pts
0-3
41%
1-3
29%
2-3
12%
3-2
9%
3-1
6%
Elo Gap+337
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+337)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)