27 Jul · 23:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1403
FormWWWWW
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Mrugala
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1263
FormWLLLL
65%
35%
🔥 Underdog lean · Eliasz🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~80 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+140
H2H1-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+140)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)