27 Jul · 23:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AB
🇵🇱Aleksander Barton
ELO 1204
FormWLLLW
81%Win chancemodel fair 1.23Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1533
FormLWWWW
19%
81%
🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 81% · 1.23vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 69%Total ~72 pts
0-3
40%
1-3
28%
2-3
12%
3-2
9%
3-1
7%
Elo Gap+329
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+329)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)