27 Jul · 23:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1534
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gumulinski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1502
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as favourite 64% (28)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.