28 Jul · 00:20 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1364
FormLWWWL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1477
FormWLLLW
38%
62%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~78 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+113
H2H48-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+113)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-26)