28 Jul · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1400
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mrugala
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1341
FormLWWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H23-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)