28 Jul · 01:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1324
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Marchlewski
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1267
FormWWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)