28 Jul · 02:00 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AB
🇵🇱Aleksander Barton
ELO 1216
FormWLWLL
78%Win chancemodel fair 1.28Machelski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1501
FormLLLLW
22%
78%
🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 78% · 1.28vsMarket 78% · 1.28· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 62%Total ~73 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
28%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+285
H2H17-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+285)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-2)