28 Jul · 02:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1330
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1400
FormLWWWW
42%
58%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)