28 Jul · 02:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1484
FormWLWWL
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Marud
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1363
FormLWLLW
63%
37%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~77 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+121
H2H48-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+121)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-27)