28 Jul · 03:50 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1489
FormWWLWW
73%Win chancemodel fair 1.37Durda
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1709
FormWWWWW
27%
73%
Fair odds · Durda
Model 73% · 1.37vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~74 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+220
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+220)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)