28 Jul · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1516
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1536
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 19% · 5.26· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.