28 Jul · 06:30 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1490
FormWLWWW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Lilien
WS
🇵🇱Waclaw Suchecki
ELO 1386
FormWWLWW
61%
39%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~75 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
1-3
15%
3-2
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+104
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+104)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)