28 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1508
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1503
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.